Politics

Bernie Sanders Is The Front-Runner

With 60 percent of precincts reporting in Nevada, it’s time for us to turn our 2020 primary forecast back on, as we think the results we have are pretty representative and the topline picture appears set. Sen. Bernie Sanders won, and he won big. As of the time of this writing, he leads the initial…

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What Our Forecast Says About The Nevada Caucuses At The District Level

For the first time this cycle, a state that isn’t more than 85 percent white will weigh in on who should be the Democratic nominee for president. There are significant demographic differences among Nevada’s four congressional districts, too, which could mean different candidates will win different districts — unlike in Iowa and New Hampshire where…

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26 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After Nevada

The results in Nevada will likely have a meaningful effect on the overall race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Coming into Saturday, Sen. Bernie Sanders is a strong favorite to win Nevada — FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gives him about a 6 in 7 chance of finishing first there. But how much he wins by — or…

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How Nevada’s Three Sets Of Results Could Affect Who ‘Wins’

To a certain extent, complexity is a feature, not a bug, of caucuses. And as hard as the Nevada Democratic Party is trying to make Saturday’s caucuses user-friendly, there will still be that pesky multi-step voting process and three different sets of results to wade through. To help you make sense of it all, here’s…

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Increased Voter Turnout Could Benefit Republicans Or Democrats In 2020

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the Week Most polls survey people who are either registered — or at least likely — to vote, but a new Knight Foundation poll interviewed over 12,000 people who don’t vote. These are people who are eligible but not registered to vote, or who are registered…

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Is Nevada More Wide-Open Than We Realize?

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Just what is going on in Nevada? On Wednesday, we had maybe our most spirited debate of the primary cycle yet, but what isn’t clear is how it did — or didn’t —…

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Politics Podcast: Just How Bad Was That Debate For Bloomberg?

By Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone, Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone and Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28741254/”></iframe> In a late night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast,…

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